According to The Financial Times, a Ladbrokes spokesman argued earlier this week that Thursday’s Scottish referendum would be the biggest political betting event in history, noting that his firm had taken more money in bets than the last British general election and American presidential election combined.
A research suggests that, instead of asking who they plan to vote for, asking people who they think will win yields better forecasts, possibly because it leads them to also reflect on the opinions of those around them, and perhaps also because it may yield more honest answers.